Stats essay

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As a Marine Reservist, anytime the United States arises in conflict with another country I become directly involved. Since the United States is building up for a war with Iraq, I have become interested on topics pertaining to this ordeal. Having already read viewpoints that deal with ethics and freedom, I decided it would be interesting to research economical debates pertaining to the conflict. As you will read in the following essay, economists who find that war will be economically devastating to our economy are also against war with Iraq. Contrasting with their viewpoints is economists who support a war against Iraq and further believe war with Iraq will help or at least not hurt our economy.

The two viewpoints on the economical debate are misleading. The dispersion of the statistics given by the economists has too much range between them. The economists are clearing trying to skew the consumer to agree with their view. The following essay supports my claim.

President George Bush and his administration have given their reasons why Saddam and his regime must be toppled, but has produced no estimates of how much money it will cost. Although, cost estimates are often ignored when war is debated, Americans must be informed on how much a war with Iraq will cost. They must also be informed on who will pay for the war and will war create an economic boom or negatively add to an already struggling U.S. economy. Help with essay on stats essay

As in past wars, such as World War II, the United States experienced an economical boom that helped the U.S. pull out of the depression. But some economists who oppose war, including last years winner of the Noble Prize for Economics Professor Joseph Stiglitz believe that a war with Iraq will harm the already struggling economy. Stiglitz explained in a recent economic debate that Iraq is the second leading producer of oil and war with Iraq would definitely hike up the cost of oil. Stiglitz further adds that if this happens, America who is the worlds largest consumer and largest importer of oil as well as the leading energy user will suffer dearly (Kwang, 00).

In addition to Stiglitz argument, economist George Perry of Brookings Institution further believes that a prolonged war (0 days or more) will be devastating to the United States. Perry estimates if the war is long, there will be a decline in world oil production of over seven million barrels per day, partially offset by a supply drawn from U.S. strategic oil reserves. Consequences of this happening may also happen if terrorism increases in the U.S. due to the war or political reaction of governments in the Middle East region. Perry further adds that if the war causes destruction to Iraq oils capacity, along with one quarter of the productive capacity of other Gulf States results could lead to an OPEC boycott that would cut oil production in the United States by 5% (Norhaus, 00). Perry believes that a boycott is economically plausible because when dealing with oil markets a producers profit go up rather than down with lower production.

Economists who are against war with Iraq deem that a quick decline in oil production will involve sharp increases in oil prices, high inflation, and major transfers of wealth from oil consumers to oil producers. This would harm the United States economy by raising the current $5 a barrel for oil to an outrageous $75 a barrel. On top of that, gasoline prices could jump to $ per gallon. Further, imported oil would rise by $00 billion per year in the U.S., and oil prices probably spark a recession (Norhaus, 00).

Further, economists are concerned with these figures because the two worst recessions of the last half-century (174-175 and 181-18) were closely associated with a constant rise in oil prices (Shapiro, 00). Being that America is the largest energy consuming country, the region will become vulnerable to these high oil prices.

In contrast, economists who support war with Iraq, such as Fred Bergsten who is the director of the Washington D.C. Institute of International Economist, believe that war would be positive for the United States and the economy. Bergsten first believes that war would eliminate the doubt of what will happen. Americans would see the results of the war and go back to their everyday business. Bergsten also adds that during the 10-11 Gulf War the U.S. released its strategic oil reserve, which in return caused oil prices to fall and help spark an economic boom. According to Bergsten, war would most likely bring Iraqi oil back to the world markets (Kwang, 00).

War supporter and economist Larry Kudlow believes that war with Iraq will play no part on the increase of oil. Kudlows article in the National Review explains that right now oil futures predict lower not higher energy cost. In his article, Kudlow explains that oil barrel price has already dropped $ from its $0 peak, and the futures believe that oil will soon cost $ a barrel. According to Kudlow, results will derive from the tax-cut effect of lower energy costs by business and consumers (Kudlow, 00). Kudlow adds that the United States and Russia have been meeting on regular bases and are discussing how the two countries can expand their oil and energy relationship (Kudlow, 00). Its also believed that the U.S. Export-Import Bank will underwrite at least $100 million in sales of U.S. equipment and services to Russian oil companies in and around Russia to develop the Caspian Sea basin which holds an estimated 0 billion barrels of oil.

Presently it is believed that Russia is assisting to the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve. The reserves inventory is estimated at 800 million barrels. This is enough to add 4 million barrels daily to world petroleum stocks. It is also believed that the U.S. government and private corporations are looking to develop petroleum interests in West Africa (Kudlow, 00).

Changing the subject from oil to the overall cost of war, economists opposed to war are worried about how much war will cost the United States. If war is prolonged, economists estimate the cost of war will be detrimental to our nations GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Not only will war with Iraq be costly for weaponry and troop movement, but also for the reconstruction of a war torn country. Some economists predict that to rebuild Iraq will cost as much as $100 billion. This is in comparison to the 10s U.S. conflict in the Balkans in which humanitarian assistance was approximated at $500 a person. The war with Afghanistan cost the U.S. $1 billion with an additional $10 billion going to humanitarian relief (Norhaus, 00). Economists who support these numbers believe that other countries wont help pay this bill. They conclude that a long drawn-out war with Iraq will cost the United States a total of $1,55 trillion dollars over a 10-year period after the war (Norhaus, 00). This includes direct military spending, peacekeeping efforts, reconstruction and nation-building, humanitarian assistance, impact on oil markets, and the macroeconomic impact.

In contrast, economists who support war conclude that a war with Iraq will cost no more than $100 billion dollars. With the U.S. GDP now at $10.6 trillion dollars a $100 billion dollar war would be roughly 0.% of national income. Economist Larry Kudlow adds, "As economic recovery gathers force (with lower tax rates kicking in over the next four years) the war-cost share of GDP will slip to virtually nil. As the stock market recovers in the years ahead, trillions of dollars of newly-created wealth will render the so-called "war cost" to a level of statistical insignificance" (Kudlow, p.1, 00).

The different viewpoints that these economists support clearly show the misrepresentation in the statistics given. The dispersion between the figures is difficult for a consumer to side with. Those who support the war will side with economists who believe that war is economically plausible. Likewise, those against war will support the statistics that show the detrimental effects conflict with Iraq will have to the U.S. economy. Consumers, who have no opinions on the conflict, must stay in the median of these debates and not become victims of caricature by economists personal beliefs.

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